Apex Loot Boxes: What a Legendary or Heirloom Really Costs
EA's Apex Pack odds and pity counters, turned into dollars: about $12 for an average Legendary and close to $500 before Heirloom Shards are guaranteed.
The deal
Apex loot boxes are Apex Packs, and EA publishes the math behind them. A standard pack has a 7.4% chance of holding at least one Legendary, a counter guarantees one by the 30th pack, and Heirloom Shards are guaranteed within 500 eligible packs. At roughly a dollar a pack, that works out to about $12 for an average Legendary and close to $500 for an Heirloom (as of November 2026).
That is the whole story in one paragraph. The rest is how those numbers stack up, and who actually ends up paying the top end.
Round 1: What are Apex packs, and what are the odds inside one?
Apex Packs are the game's loot boxes: you open one, you get random cosmetics, and EA's published Apex Pack drop rates put the odds of an Epic or better item at 24.8% and a Legendary at 7.4% per standard pack (as of November 2026).
Those odds went public in more detail for a reason. CGMagazine reported that the breakdown arrived in response to South Korean regulations that took effect in 2024. If you want the wider picture on what these disclosures do and don't tell you, our piece on what loot box odds disclosures reveal goes deeper.
Here is what 7.4% means in practice:
| Drop | Odds per pack | Guarantee | Average packs | Rough cost at list price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary item | 7.4% | by pack 30 | about 12 | about $12 |
| Heirloom Shards | 0.045% | within 500 eligible packs | about 448 | about $448, up to $500 |
The averages assume each pack is an independent roll at the published rate, with the guarantee capping the bad runs.
Round 2: How much does a Legendary actually cost?
On average, a Legendary lands around pack 12, which is roughly $12 of coins at list price. On pure odds you would expect one every 13.5 packs, but EA's bad luck protection rule means nobody opens more than 30 Apex Packs without a Legendary, and that cap pulls the average down.
The pricing side comes from the store. 1,000 Apex Coins list at $9.99 on the US Xbox store, and a standard pack is 100 Apex Coins, so each pack costs about a dollar. A worst case run to the 30-pack guarantee is about $30. Roughly one player in ten hits that wall, because the chance of going 29 packs dry at 7.4% each is a little over 10%.
One catch: the counter ignores Collection Event Packs, so event packs do not move you toward that guaranteed Legendary.
Round 3: How many packs does an Heirloom take?
Heirlooms are where the bill gets serious. Each pack has a 0.045% chance of Heirloom Shards, and EA promises shards within 500 eligible packs, with caveats tied to owning all base Mythics.
Do the math and about 80% of players never see shards early. They grind all the way to the 500-pack guarantee, which is 50,000 coins, or roughly $500 at the 1,000-coin list price. The average across everyone is about 448 packs. Only around one player in five gets lucky before the cap.
Two details soften it slightly. A shard drop does not use up a pack from your inventory. And shards buy more than Heirlooms: Tier 1 Prestige Skins cost 150 Heirloom Shards in the Mythics Store.
This is the same "it's due" feeling covered in our explainer on gambling terms for luck, except here the game literally builds the "due" into the rules, then charges you to reach it.
Round 4: Can you get apex loot boxes free?
Whether a pack came out of your wallet or not, EA writes its guarantees around packs opened, not packs bought. The Legendary rule counts how many Apex Packs a player opens, with Collection Event Packs the only exclusion it names, and the Heirloom guarantee applies to select eligible packs.
The awkward part is tracking it. EA's own currency and Apex Packs help page lists "can I check how many Apex Packs I've opened" as a question players ask, and the answer is that the game doesn't show you. So you are walking toward a guarantee without a progress bar, which is exactly the condition that makes "one more pack" feel reasonable.
For how another studio ended up handling this whole model, see our hub on why Overwatch stopped selling loot boxes, and the rest of the loot boxes scene for more.
Round 5: The regulars ask
What are the odds of getting a Legendary in an Apex Pack?
A standard pack has a 7.4% chance of at least one Legendary item, per EA's published odds (as of November 2026).
What is the Apex Legends pity system?
EA calls it bad luck protection: you cannot open more than 30 Apex Packs without a Legendary item. Collection Event Packs are excluded. Heirloom Shards have their own guarantee within 500 eligible packs.
How much does an Apex Pack cost in real money?
A standard pack is 100 Apex Coins, and 1,000 coins list at $9.99 on the US Xbox store, so about a dollar per pack at that price (as of November 2026).
Can you check how many Apex Packs you've opened?
Not in the game. EA's help page addresses the question, but there is no in-game counter showing your total.
Round 6: Receipts
- Electronic Arts, Apex Legends FAQ, accessed November 2026
- EA Help, Apex Legends currency guide: currencies, crafting, and Apex Packs, accessed November 2026
- Microsoft Store (Xbox), Apex Legends 1,000 Apex Coins, accessed November 2026
- CGMagazine, Apex Legends Spills Details On How Their Loot Boxes Work, accessed November 2026
