Opening Loot Boxes: What Odds Disclosures Really Tell You
Apple, Google and the FTC make games show loot box odds, and UK data puts paid loot boxes at 10% of game spend. Here is how to read the numbers.
The deal
Opening loot boxes means paying, in cash or in-game currency, for a random prize whose odds the seller now has to show you before you buy. On phones that rule comes from Apple and Google, and in the US the FTC has written it into a settlement order. What the disclosures do not do is tell you what a run of pulls will cost, and the best public numbers on that come from UK regulators.
Round 1: The odds screen is a rule, not a favor
That little "probabilities" button exists because the platforms demand it. Apple's guidelines say apps with loot boxes must disclose the odds of each item type to customers before purchase (as of October 2026). Google Play goes a step further on placement: the odds have to appear in close and timely proximity to the purchase, not buried in a help page you will never open (as of October 2026).
So if a mobile game sells a box without odds anywhere near the buy button, that is the store's rule being broken, not a design choice.
Round 2: Odds plus exchange rates: the FTC version
Odds alone can still hide the price, because most games sell boxes for a premium currency you bought in bundles. The FTC's settlement with the Genshin Impact developer tackles exactly that. The order requires the company to disclose loot box odds and currency exchange rates for its multi-tiered virtual currency.
That second part is the reality check. A pull priced in gems or crystals only becomes a dollar figure once you know how many dollars buy those gems, and the order treats that conversion as something players are owed.
Round 3: What players actually spend
The cleanest spending figures come from the UK. A government review citing an Ipsos Mori survey found that 7% of players paid for a loot box over the 12 months to December 2020, yet paid loot boxes made up 10% of overall monthly spend on video games.
Not every box costs cash, either. In the UK Gambling Commission's survey of young people, among those who paid for in-game items, just under half (49%) used free currency earned without spending money.
Round 4: Is it gambling? Legally, mostly not
The same UK review concluded that most loot boxes do not count as gambling under the Gambling Act 2005, because the prizes cannot be cashed out. For the story of one publisher that walked away from paid boxes altogether, see how Overwatch loot boxes ended.
Round 5: How to use the disclosures
Before opening loot boxes, find the odds for the item you actually want, then find the currency exchange rate, and multiply out what a single pull costs in dollars. The odds tell you how often you should expect to miss. Nothing on that screen promises a hit on any given pull.
Round 6: The regulars ask
Do games have to show loot box odds?
On the App Store and Google Play, yes. Both require odds to be disclosed before purchase, and Google adds that they must sit close to the purchase itself.
What did the FTC order about loot boxes?
In its Genshin Impact settlement, the FTC required the developer to disclose loot box odds and the exchange rates for its multi-tiered virtual currency.
How many players pay for loot boxes?
A UK government review cited a survey finding 7% of players paid for one over the 12 months to December 2020, while paid loot boxes made up 10% of monthly game spend.
Are loot boxes legally gambling?
In the UK, the government found most are not, because the prizes cannot be cashed out under the Gambling Act 2005.
Round 7: Receipts
- Apple, App Store Review Guidelines, accessed October 2026
- Google Play, Payments - Play Console Help, accessed October 2026
- US Federal Trade Commission, Genshin Impact Game Developer Will be Banned from Selling Lootboxes to Teens Under 16 without Parental Consent, Pay a $20 Million Fine to Settle FTC Charges, January 17, 2025
- UK Department for Culture, Media and Sport, Government response to the call for evidence on loot boxes in video games, July 18, 2022
- UK Gambling Commission, Young People and Gambling 2024: Methods of paying for in-game items and to open loot boxes, November 1, 2024
